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The largest risk factor Bloomberg calls the trade war between Washington and Beijing. So, if Donald Trump fulfills his threat and introduces new duties against Chinese goods, China’s GDP growth in 2019 will slow down by 1.5 percent.
The dispute between the Italian authorities and the European Union over the planned budget expenditures can also have a negative impact on the world economy. In addition, the threat is represented by differences in the Italian ruling coalition, Bloomberg writes.
The exit of Great Britain from the European Union will also damage the economy. Thus, according to forecasts, in the absence of an agreement on Brexit, the country's GDP in 2030 will be seven percent lower than if London remains in the organization. The deal, in which the UK will remain within the framework of a customs union with the EU, will mean a decrease of three percent, the author notes.
Among other threats to the world economy in 2019, Bloomberg analysts listed the confrontation between the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives and the Republican Senate and the US President, the upcoming elections in several countries, the level of oil prices due to US relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the risk of conflict in Asia.